The favourites to win Euro 2024, according to Opta

Data Analysts Predict Outcome of Euro 2024 Knockout Stages

Euro 2024’s Round of 16 clashes have reached their conclusion and fans now know the eight teams left in contention to achieve glory in Germany. Some of the most successful nations in football history advanced through to the business end of the showpiece tournament.

Gareth Southgate’s England, Spain and France are among the most talented squads still in the competition, and it’s likely they will still be in the mix by the time the semi-finals roll around. While there are the usual suspects with favourable odds still in the competition, several teams have taken the tournament by storm and battled against the tide to secure qualification from their group before vindicating their worth by delivering big blows in the early knockour stage.

That said, Opta Analyst have provided all the data necessary as Euro 2024 reaches the knockout rounds. Below is a breakdown of the chances each of the eight sides have of winning the trophy, as well as a comprehensive look at how far all the teams are likely to go.

4 Favourites

England, Germany, Spain, France

While Gareth Southgate and his players were subjected to jeers and criticism during the group stages due to their lacklustre displays, England are still third favourites to lift the iconic trophy in mid-July. A stern defence and Harry Kane’s goalscoring brilliance could be vital to the Three Lions’ success as they find themselves on the kinder side of the draw. However, recent performances have led them to be leap-frogged by other nations in Opta’s predictions after they left it until extra-time before edging past Slovakia 2-1 in the Round of 16.

The host nation, Germany, are also no longer the firm favourites for the tournament, with Spain emerging as the most polished side remaining in the competition. La Roja, with their slick pass-and-move system are the likeliest country to face England in the final of the competition after impressing in the tournament’s first phase, before then finding a comeback job easy to navigate against Georgia in a plain-sailing 4-1 win in the first knockout round.

Luis de la Fuente’s side opened their campaign with resounding wins against Croatia and Italy before finding a way to squeeze past Albania via their much-changed lineup. The tie of the quarter-finals is set to take place on Friday evening when Spain and Germany lock horns, and given La Roja’s ability to play at full throttle no matter who starts, Opta predicts another win for the Iberian nation.

Much like England, France have found navigating through the early rounds of EURO 2024 difficult. In their four games so far, they are yet to have found the net from open play and without it going down as an own goal. They stuttered through the group, only finding victory against Poland, while settling for draws against the Netherlands and Austria. However, such is their star-studded lineup – which features an enviable pool of talent that extends to four lineups that would be able to challenge for the end prize – they remain among the chalk horses, even if their slender Round of 16 victory over Belgium was anything but a compelling case for the prediction.

4 Outsiders

Netherlands, Portugal, Switzerland, Turkey

Switzerland proved they can hold their own against the bigger nations as they were just moments away from topping their group by beating Germany in their own backyard. Of the four outsiders, Granit Xhaka, Xherdan Shaqiri and co have been the best performing side, having eliminated champions Italy with ease in the last phase of the competition, with goals from Remo Freuler and Ruben Vargas putting The Azzurri to the sword in a 2-0 collapse. Nevertheless, now that they must navigate a more challenging path that sees them likely face the Netherlands after a litmus test against England, Opta are confident the Rossocrociati will reach the end of the road at the quarter-finals.

The Netherlands are comfortably the best-placed outsider to make it all the way, with Cody Gakpo’s stunning form coming at the right time for The Oranje, who have been given a respectable 11.84% chance of winning the whole thing. The Liverpool striker is leading the way in many key areas in the tournament, having scored the joint most amount of goals, scoring three times and providing an extra assist as he’s won the Man of the Match award in 50% of his appearances so far this summer.

Portugal have also been given a good chance at making it far, but their humdrum display against Slovenia in the Round of 16, which could also see Cristiano Ronaldo pick up a suspension to further complicate their preparations to face France in the last eight in a repeat of the 2016 final, means they fall short of pre-tournament expectations as they gear up to face their first sizeable opponent in Hamburg on Friday.

Turkey also have players capable of magical moments, but they aren’t expected to advance past the quarter-finals of the competition after having rather up-and-down group phases. Even still, should they put in a performance like they did against Austria, it is evidenced that not even data professionals could predict where the Eurasian nation might end up, with Merih Demiral scoring twice to snatch the surprise package reputation right from underneath Ralf Rangnick’s nose.